This week I published one of my “expletives” in my timeline in LinkedIn. At last (I thought) the corrupt leader of the Senate, Renan Calheiros, was being impeached through a writ of mandamus issued by Minister of Supreme Court Marco Aurélio Melo. I went to say that politics in Brazil is becoming increasingly a high-risk activity (after former president Dilma, former House Speaker Eduardo Cunha, and now president of the Brazilian Congress, Renan).
I was too happy too early. The next day, Supreme Court in plenary session acquitted Renan by 6 X 3 votes – he can remain as president of Senate, but not replace Pres. Temer in his absences or impediments. This has been done, apparently, to maintain a resemblance of normality, once Renan`s term ends as of next week (year-end recess) and he will probably be replaced by someone hopefully (one can only hope) not ensnared by the long arm of the law.
My connection Muhammad Shahrose Azam from London commented, and I quote – “I think this is the second president impeached in recent past by Brazilian institutions. Is this the lack of institutions to find effective leadership or just a political move to change the hierarchy?”
Let me address his questions as well as possible:
- Is it lack of institutions? No. Definitely not. In fact, I think it is the first time in as many years as I recall that institutions are functioning as they are expected to do. Public Prosecutors found the right methods to start our own “Mani Puliti” (Clean Hands) operation, the Car Wash, and have finally obtained massive support from the population. This accounts for the amount of politicians that, in the recent past, would say that “this is the way things work in Brasilia” and suddenly find out that although this has been done for many years, it is, after all, against the law – and I mean accepting kickbacks, “facilitating” contracts between large construction groups and government, etc. In the specific case of Renan Calheiros, he used the product of kickbacks from a certain contractor to pay the alimony of his off-the-wedlock daughter with a Brasilia Jornalist Monica Veloso;
- Finding effective leadership – A conjugation of factors make Brazilian elections an enticing plate for corrupts: a)they are expensive – therefore, the regular guy with good intentions cannot afford them; b)they are not linked to a local electorate, to which the politician must be accountable, but for a larger audience, prone to massive media campaigns; c)they are a safe haven for people who committed crimes. Brazilian politicians have “special jurisdiction” to be sued, which means lengthier lawsuits with possibility of expiration of some crimes. Therefore, the effective leadership is here. Just now they are putting their heads out;
- Was it a political move to change hierarchy? The adepts of the Workers` Party (PT) of former presidents Lula and Dilma would say so. They call Dilma`s ousting as a “Coup d’état”). Fact is that after 13 years of PT + PMBD joint rule, nation was sick and tired. Mr. Temer is a PMDB (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party) man, and vice-president in 2 occasions. Well, Dilma was so inept, so bad a communicator (differently from Lula, the Donkey`s Whisperer, as some call him) and such a stubborn person that the nation went tired of her. People were also tired of Eduardo Cunha, now in jail, and of Renan Calheiros.
As I write, the acquitting of Renan by the Supreme Court is being considered as a victory of Planalto Palace, although populations wanted him out (and showed that in the streets as of December 4th in over 200 cities all over the country). I have my doubts. Reasons for Mr Temer to help to bail Renan out of this mess abound – he is an ally in two major economic projects (and ones much needed by Brazil`s economy), the “Federal Limitation of Expenses” and the Social Security reform. With these bills passed, I am sure country will regain its financial health and will be in the path of prosperity once more (in the medium term at least).
But the fact is that the Brazilian politicians play Russian Roulette with the Public Prosecutors of Car Wash and other major operations carried on in conjunction with Federal Police and a bunch of courageous federal judges. Law is against the politicians. Population is against them too. Even the market wanted to get rid of most of them, if possible. This is a deadly combination: politicians thinking only of power and the next elections, and a whole nation eager for their blood.
Managing Partner Russell Bedford Valuconcept